🌊 Manor Beach Sea-Lice Risk Forecast

A local conditions forecast for Manor Beach, built to answer one practical question: "Should we swim today?"

See today's risk →

The problem

Some swimmers in western Long Island Sound report itchy rashes commonly called "sea lice" or seabather's eruption. The larvae are not directly monitored at Manor Beach, so beachgoers usually rely on scattered reports and guesses about the weather.

What this is

This forecast estimates whether environmental conditions are favorable for irritation risk. It uses water temperature, season, wind, tide, and recent rain. Community reports are still useful context, but they do not change the risk score.

How it works

  1. Every 30 minutes we pull water temperature, tides, wind, rainfall, and sea-surface temperature.
  2. A transparent rules engine scores environmental conditions.
  3. Reports can be submitted, but they are shown as activity only and do not affect the risk level.
  4. We publish a single risk level, always paired with the reasons behind it.
LOWWATCH ELEVATEDHIGH

See the current score calculation →

Data sources

LISICOS WLIS buoy — water temp, salinity, DO NOAA tide station 8518490 — New Rochelle NWS hourly forecast — Manor Beach grid cell NOAA/NWS MRMS — 24h radar-estimated rain NOAA CoastWatch SST (fallback) Community reports — activity only

Are they close to Manor Beach? The NOAA tide station is New Rochelle, so it is local to the Larchmont/Manor Beach stretch of the Sound, though beach-level tide timing can still vary a bit.

The LISICOS WLIS buoy is an offshore Western Long Island Sound buoy. It represents the same basin water mass better than a distant open-ocean station, but it is not mounted at Manor Beach itself.

NWS wind comes from the hourly forecast grid cell that contains Manor Beach. It is forecast guidance for the immediate area, not a beach-mounted anemometer. MRMS rainfall is sampled near Manor Beach from a radar-estimated precipitation grid, not a rain gauge at the beach.

What raises the risk

FactorWhy it matters
Warm water (>64°F)More favorable for seasonal blooms
Mid-summer seasonJuly–September is the higher-risk part of the season
Sustained onshore windCan push surface organisms toward the shoreline
High / incoming tideCan bring nearshore water higher onto the beach
Rain in the last 24hStormwater runoff can raise separate water-quality concerns

Why reports still matter

Reports help neighbors understand recent beach activity and can highlight conditions worth paying attention to. To reduce spam risk, reports are not used as inputs to the public risk score.

Report what you saw →
This is a community risk forecast — not an official environmental monitoring system, beach-safety service, or medical advice. Sea-lice larvae are not directly measured. Always use your own judgment before swimming.