🌊 Manor Beach Sea-Lice Risk Forecast

The first practical sea-lice risk forecast for western Long Island Sound — built to help a parent at the beach answer one question: "Should we swim today?"

See today's risk →

The problem

Every summer, swimmers in western Long Island Sound occasionally get "sea lice" — seabather's eruption, an itchy rash likely caused by the larval stage of the sea anemone Edwardsiella lineata, which rides along with comb-jelly blooms. Nobody monitors these larvae, and there is no forecasting service anywhere in the Sound. People decide using rumors, Facebook groups, and luck.

What this is

We can't measure the larvae directly. Instead we estimate the probability that conditions are favorable for them, using real-time environmental data, ecological proxies, and crowd-sourced reports. Think of it like a rip-current forecast — a risk signal, not a guarantee.

How it works

  1. Every 30 minutes we pull water temperature, tides, wind, and sea-surface temperature.
  2. A transparent rules engine scores the conditions across seven factors.
  3. Beachgoers add comb-jelly sightings and sting reports — the strongest signals of all.
  4. We publish a single risk level, always paired with the reasons behind it.
LOWWATCH ELEVATEDHIGH

Data sources

LISICOS WLIS buoy — water temp, salinity, DO NOAA tide station 8518490 — New Rochelle NWS marine forecast ANZ335 — wind NOAA CoastWatch SST (fallback) You — sightings & sting reports

Are they close to Manor Beach? The NOAA tide station is New Rochelle, so it is local to the Larchmont/Manor Beach stretch of the Sound, though beach-level tide timing can still vary a bit.

The LISICOS WLIS buoy is an offshore Western Long Island Sound buoy. It represents the same basin water mass better than a distant open-ocean station, but it is not mounted at Manor Beach itself.

NWS ANZ335 covers Long Island Sound west of New Haven CT and Port Jefferson NY. Its wind signal is regional over-water context for the western Sound, not a beach-mounted anemometer. Crowd reports are the most Manor Beach-specific input.

What raises the risk

FactorWhy it matters
Warm water (>64°F)Strongest driver of comb-jelly reproduction
Mid-summer seasonJuly–September is peak eruption season
Sustained onshore windPushes buoyant larvae toward the shoreline
High / incoming tideConcentrates organisms near swimmers
Comb-jelly sightingsDirect ecological proxy for the larvae
Recent sting reportsGround truth from other beachgoers
Rain in the last 24hStormwater runoff and sewer overflows raise pollution risk

Why your reports matter

Anyone can pull NOAA data — that's not the moat. The value is the observation dataset. After two summers of resident reports, this becomes the only Manor Beach-specific sea-lice dataset in existence, and the difference between a genuinely predictive forecast and an educated weather report.

Report what you saw →
This is a community risk forecast — not an official environmental monitoring system, beach-safety service, or medical advice. Sea-lice larvae are not directly measured. Always use your own judgment before swimming.