Risk calculation

The forecast is a transparent additive score. Only environmental conditions affect the score; community reports are activity context.

Current calculation

Risk
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Score (1–5)
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Reports
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Updated
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FactorPointsCurrent input
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Risk bands

ScoreRiskMeaning
🪼 (1)LOWFew favorable conditions detected.
🪼🪼 (2)WATCHSome conditions are favorable; check the factors before deciding.
🪼🪼🪼 (3)WATCH / ELEVATEDMultiple conditions are favorable or expected.
🪼🪼🪼🪼 (4)ELEVATEDSeveral favorable conditions are present or expected.
🪼🪼🪼🪼🪼 (5)HIGHMany strong signals line up; avoid swimming if you are trying to minimize risk.

Factor rules

FactorRuleMax
Water temperature<59°F: 0, 59-64.3°F: 1, 64.4-71.6°F: 3, >71.6°F: 44
SeasonJul-Sep: 3, Jun/Oct: 1, other months: 03
Wind8+ onshore hours in the next 12h: 4, 3-7.9 hours: 2, otherwise: 04
TideHigh: 2, incoming: 1, outgoing/low/unknown: 02
Rain / pollution≥25 mm (~0.98 in): 3, 5–24.9 mm (~0.20–0.98 in): 2, trace–4.9 mm (~<0.20 in): 1, none/unknown: 03

Community reports remain available, but they do not add points to the score.